Tommy’s House Predictions
Happy Election Day! Here are my House predictions. I won’t go through every district. If you’d like to see how I chose individual races there’s a link to my map here. I predict Republicans will win the House 225-210. Yes, that is on the low end. Here’s how I got there. First, as I pointed…
Tommy’s Senate Predictions
Here it is folks! My final Senate prediction. I’m a bit more bullish on Democrats’ chances than most forecasters. Why? Maybe it’s because I’m biased. Maybe. Or maybe it’s because I think the professional forecasters are cowards and picking Republicans, not based on the data but because they have a lot more to lose from…
How the 2022 Polls Look With 2018’s Polling Error
A few weeks ago the New York Times’ Nate Cohn wrote a piece where he looked at the 2022 polling averages – where Democrats have been doing surprisingly well – through the lens of 2020’s polling error. His conclusion? As he writes, the “warning signs are flashing again.” According to the article, “Democratic Senate candidates…
The Case for a Democratic Environment
UPDATE (9/9/22): FiveThirtyEight updated their partisan lean metrics hours after I published this. The story has been updated to reflect the new data. Special election charts and results as well as the above generic ballot polling average are by FiveThirtyEight. I wanted to credit them in the captions but WordPress is being dumb. I think…
Where Things Stand Two Months Out From the Midterms
Democrats are looking to defy history. Can they? Here’s a thread I wrote, analyzing how the current race compares to past races. Enjoy! In good Republican years they tend to run away with the race around labor day as pollsters switch over to likely voter (LV) models. For instance, at this point in 2014, Republicans…
Democrats may not be Doomed in the Midterms
In 2010 Scott Brown stunned the political world by winning a Special Election for the Massachussetts Senate seat vacated by Ted Kennedy after he died. Brown won 52-47, a 5 point margin in a state Obama had won two years earlier by 26 points. It was a stunning upset and a harbringer of things to…
(L)I(e)RS
The Insidious Lie about the IRS Funding If the last eight days have shown us anything it’s that we’re still in an incredibly charged political environment. With supporters of the former president attacking and threatening FBI officers and federal judges, over lies and wild accusations, one wouldn’t want to do anything to pour more fuel…
Republicans Swing and Miss at the Inflation Reduction Act
Here’s why Republican criticism of the Inflation Reduction Act misses the mark. Republicans seem to have settled on the attack that you shouldn’t raise taxes during a recession. This is a clever attack because it’s really a two-fer. They get to infer that we’re in a recession (we’re not) AND criticize the legislation. Technically they’re…
What to Know About PACT Act Spat
Say that Five Time Fast! Here’s what to know about the feud taking place, most famously between Jon Stewart and Ted Cruz, over the PACT Act – a bill to help veterans exposed to toxic burn pits. The bill passed the Senate back in June with overwhelming bipartisan support (84-14). But there was a problem.…
Trump: Evil Genius or Petulant Child?
The problem with going after Trump is, and always has been, proving that he had corrupt intent. Put another way, proving that he knows right from wrong. The Committee attempted to show this during their hearings but nothing they’ve presented so far has convinced me that this man has any connection to reality. Yes, he’s…
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