Trump: Evil Genius or Petulant Child?

US Government, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons

The problem with going after Trump is, and always has been, proving that he had corrupt intent. Put another way, proving that he knows right from wrong. The Committee attempted to show this during their hearings but nothing they’ve presented so far has convinced me that this man has any connection to reality. Yes, he’s a 76 year old man who SHOULD know right from wrong; but this is a guy who wanted to nuke a hurricane, he wanted to bomb drug cartels in Mexico, and he wanted to build a moat filled with snakes and alligators at the border to keep migrants out (he also wanted to shoot them in the legs). That sounds less to me like some evil genius and more like a petulant child (okay, shooting them in the legs is pretty evil).

I was hoping to be convinced at the January 6th hearing Thursday night that Trump understood the gravity of what was happening at the Capitol and chose not to act out of corrupt intent, but I ended up exactly where I started: just like after Charlottesville and Helsinki, David Duke and the Proud Boys, he can’t seem to separate someone saying nice things about him from them doing evil things. He’s so narcissistic that his entire view of a person seems to be dependent on how they view him (or what they say about him).

Here’s the test I did, and I’ll ask anyone trying to assess Trump’s culpability to try this test too. Take anything he did as President, replace him with an actual child, and tell me you couldn’t see a child doing that exact same thing. I can’t think of one instance where I would say, “no a child wouldn’t do that.” What would a child do if they said a hurricane was going to hit Alabama and they ended up being wrong? They would probably alter a weather map to make it look like the hurricane was headed towards Alabama (the only difference is the child might use a crayon whereas he used a sharpie). What would a child do if given bad news during lunch? They’d probably get angry and throw their plate of chicken nuggets against the wall, splattering ketchup and broken glass everywhere (who gave them a glass plate!?)

I’m not saying Trump isn’t dangerous. Having a child as president is incredibly dangerous – there’s a reason you have to be 35 to run for president – but he’s not some evil genius that’s just putting on an act to look like a bufoon. If he was he’d be the greatest actor of all time, and I don’t know if you’ve seen Home Alone II, but he’s not.

His actions on January 6th were apalling and impeachable and he should have been convicted and removed from office for the political crime of inciting an insurrection. I continue to believe that he should be barred from ever holding office again under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment. Bringing a mob to DC, riling them up, and then refusing to do anything as they attack the citadel of democracy is the definition of “giving aid and comfort to the nation’s enemies.” The fact that many of them stayed at his hotel only bolsters the case (except the part about comfort). Additionally the fact that he badgered state election officials, the Justice Department, the FBI, and even his own Vice President – to illegally overturn the results of an election he clearly lost – plus he’s been paying the legal bills of many of the witnesses and has said he’d like to pardon those convicted in the insurrection, further bolsters the case.

I’m not saying he didn’t committ a crime. Just that it would be hard to prove, and it’s not the Comittee’s job to prove. Hand your evidence over to the Justice Department and let them do their job but ultimately the political process remains the best way to hold Trump accountable and more importantly, safeguard our democracy. The case for the political crime is open and shut. That’s what we should be focusing on. Besides, you can still run for president from jail, but you can’t run if you’ve been barred under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment.

---

This is one of 3 pieces I wrote after Thursday night’s hearing. The other two I posted on my Facebook here and here. I don’t feel like rewriting them.

Democracy is on the Ballot in 2022

TapTheForwardAssist, CC BY-SA 4.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0, via Wikimedia Commons

Abortion is on the ballot in 2022. Gas prices are on the ballot in 2022. Everything you care about and hold dear is on the ballot in 2022 because democracy is on the ballot in 2022. The truth is that our ability to get our desired outcome on these issues and more is contingent upon our remaing a democracy. The beauty of our system is that we can have a contest of ideas until the best ideas win out. If we get it wrong the first time, well with enough time and organizing we can revisit the issue and get it right the next time. Just look at what happened with the gun safety bill. It took us awhile, but we got there.

If the January 6th hearings have made anything abundantly clear it’s that this entire system is under threat. This means that our ability to have our voices heard and a government responsive to our needs is also under threat. That may sound alarmist but it’s not hyperbole.

So here’s how you should condition your vote in 2022: everyone running for office should be asked one simple question: is Joe Biden the duly elected President of the United States? If they don’t answer unequivocally, yes – if they dither and try to avoid the subject, or if they outright say no, they do not deserve your vote, because here’s the deal: even if you believe there was massive fraud in the 2020 election – despite loads of evidence to the contrary – the fact is that the Trump campaign failed to make it’s case: in the courts, to investigators, to election officials, even to their own Justice Department. The process played out under the rules established before the election and the former President failed. That’s how our system works. That’s how law and order works. The president exhausted all of his legal options and he failed.

What all of this means is that means Joe Biden is the duly elected President of the United States, just like someone who’s found not guilty can not legally be considered a felon, no matter how much you think they committed the crime. You don’t get to lock them up in your basement because you think they belong in jail. All the attempts to pressure election officials, the Justice Department, and even his own Vice President – to break their oaths to the Constitution and overturn the election results – that was the equivalent of locking someone up in your basement (which you didn’t need to do in 2020 because Biden locked himself in his basement?. Had Trump succeeded we would have had a Constitutional crisis on our hands because we would have had a President in power not duly elected under the laws set forth in the Constitution.

So, again, the law is clear. We elect our leaders based on rules set forth BEFORE the election and we agree upon a process to settle any and all election-related disputes BEFORE the election. Once that process plays out, that is the end of the line. Going outside that system is an attack on the very foundation of our democracy, and any candidate who refuses to acknowledge that simple fact has a squishy relationship with democracy and does not deserve your vote. I know it’s hard to focus on something so esoteric when there are so many other concerns front and center, but democracy is THE issue in 2022.

Our system, where people elect their leaders and then hold them accountable for their actions while in office, has worked for over 200 years. If we lose that we lose everything. Democracy is on the ballot in 2022. Vote accordingly.

It’s Officially a Midterm Year

Now that it’s officially 2022, it’s time for the midterms to kick into full gear! Republicans are bullish on their chances and, judging by the wave of Democratic retirements, so are Democrats. We all know by now that one of the golden rules of American politics is that the President’s party loses seats in their first midterm, and with Democrats already holding extremely slim majorities, their hold on power is hanging by a thread. But Democrats have a couple of things going for them that could help them buck history:

First, the Senate map actually looks good for Democrats. Republicans are defending 20 seats and Democrats 14. Moreover, Republicans are defending two seats in states that Biden won while Democrats are defending zero seats in states that Trump won. I’m not saying Democrats can’t lose the Senate, just that if they lose the Senate they’ve almost certainly already lost the House that’s the least of their worries.

Second, with a little bit of luck we’ll have COVID behind us and the economy roaring again by November. That should help put some wind behind the Democrats’s backs – so long as they make sure to get credit for it. We’re on track to have more than 80% of the country vaccinated by November, as well as a good portion of the world, and inflation is expected to fall precipitously this year. The latest projection from the Fed had core PCE falling to 2.6% by the end of the year.

Third, the Republican party is tying itself to an unpopular President who’s voters only seem to only come out when he’s on the ballot. That’s bad politics, which Democrats can take advantage of. Democrats need to continue challenging Republicans on the extremism within their ranks and their refusal to disavow Trump. Most voters don’t like Trump. Democrats should take advantage of that fact and remind voters that Republicans are the ones who empowered Trump, appeased Trump, and are ultimately responsible for January 6th. Thankfully it looks like the 1/6 Committee is going to get to the bottom of things, and while the investigation should not be done with the aim of helping Democrats, it nonetheless will remind voters of what Republicans created.

A note on Virgina: There’s a risk of Democrats learning the wrong lessons from Virginia. The lesson isn’t to not talk about Trump, it’s to do so wisely. Instead of trying to tie every single person with an (R) in front of their name to Trump, Democrats should simply challenge them on some of Trump’s more anti-democratic tendencies and remind voters that, with Trump likely to run again in 2024, who counts the votes really matters.

Finally, Democrats have a President who’s intent on doing popular things. This is a good political strategy and should help them heading into November.

So if Democrats hope to win in 2022 they need to get COVID and the economy under control, remind voters of Republicans’ extremism problem, and continue to govern effectively and do popular things. But there’s one more piece to the puzzle: democracy reform.

Democrats need to reform democracy so they can govern effectively and, more importantly, protect the country from the anti-democratic forces threatening to pull it down. That means reforming the filibuster first and foremost. In today’s politics it’s difficult for any President to live up to expectations when the out-party has a blanket veto over their entire agenda and no incentive to work with them. I’ve often said that my goal for 2022 is for Democrats to lose because they deserve it, not because the system is rigged against them. Yes that’s a low bar, but it hasn’t always been clear that they would be able to meet it. While it looks like Democrats are going to dodge a bullet with redistricting, there’s still plenty of voter suppression and election subversion laws being introduced and passed in states that could make it more difficult for Democrats to win. Passing the Freedom to Vote Act, the John Lewis Voting Rights Advancement Act, as well as updating the Electoral Count Act are key, not only to Democrats holding onto their slim majorities, but to America remaining a democracy (obviously an ECA update won’t affect the midterms but it’s important nonetheless).

So will Democrats hold onto the House and Senate? Probably not, but all hope is not lost. In 1998 and 2002 the President’s party bucked history and actually gained seats in the midterms. In 1998 it was backlash to Republicans’ impeachment of Bill Clinton. Democrats can hope for a similar backlash to Republicans’ continued embrace of Trump and Trump-backed extremists. In 2002 it was because of 9/11 and the rally around the flag effect. While it’s hard to see Americans rallying around the flag for anything these days, maybe coming out of the COVID emergency will foster some similar goodwill (I’m not holding my breath).

Or maybe pure desperation will put Democrats over the top. The fact is, if they lose in November, they’re likely to be out of power for a very long time.

Joe Biden and the Power of Being Liked

If Biden’s first 100 days in office have taught us anything (other than we don’t have to think about the President every day) it’s that being liked is a powerful yet often underappreciated asset in politics. By the 100 day mark in Barack Obama’s Presidency the “Tea Party” movement had already begun and rumors were percolating that he was a “secret Muslim” not born in this country. By this point in Donald Trump’s Presidency, we were all speculating as to whether he was a secret Russian asset, and to what extent his campaign colluded with Russia to influence the 2016 election. Why? Well part of it is politics. The opposition is always going to try and press their advantage by attacking whoever is in power in whatever way they can. But neither Obama nor Trump helped themselves. Trump made no attempt to appeal to anyone outside of his base, and it’s well known that his brash confrontational manner turned off most voters. Obama was often aloof, and could come off like he was talking down to you, giving power to claims of him being an elitist. A large segment of the population didn’t like them. Didn’t trust them. And were thus more likely to believe negative things said about them. Moreover many of their collegues didn’t like them, which made them more likely to say negative things about them.

Joe Biden doesn’t have that problem. In the first 100 days of the Biden Presidency, most of the outrage has been directed at Dr. Seuss and Mr. Potato Head as opposed to Biden himself. Republicans aren’t demonizing Biden like they did Obama. They aren’t demonizing him because they can’t. Because people know him, and people like him. If the last three administrations have taught us anything it’s that Machiavelli was wrong. It is not better to be feared than loved. At least not in this country. Case in point: Mitch McConnell (R-KY). Mitch McConnell famously said, “The single most important thing we want to achieve is for President Obama to be a one-term president.” This month, when asked about Biden’s American Jobs Plan, McConnell first went out of his way to call Biden a, “first-rate person” before going on to criticize the plan as left wing yadda yadda yadda. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) told Politico, “he’s one of the most decent people you ever want to meet,” and of course we’re all quite familiar of the video of Lindsey Graham getting choked up while talking about Biden, calling him, “as good a person as God ever created.” It’s really hard to convince people someone’s trying to destroy America, destroy their way of life, when you’ve just crowed about how wondrful a person they are.

Now, of course, none of this has translated to any Republican support in Congress, for Biden’s policies, but we also haven’t seen the backlash. The same backlash that led to huge Republican victories in 2010 and essentially stopped the Obama Presidency in it’s tracks. By neutralizing Republicans’ greatest weapon against a Democratic President: demonization, Biden is forcing them to change strategy and try to attack him on policy. The only problem is, Biden’s policies are broadly popular. The American Rescue Plan still enjoys support from about 7 in 10 voters, including almost half of Republicans and the American Jobs Plan and American Families Plan both garner support from around 2 in 3 Americans, according to polls.

It also doesn’t hurt that Biden’s an old white guy. Biden has governed well to the left of Obama, yet you’d be hard pressed to find anyone that believes he’s a socialist, and he hasn’t garnered anything close to the mass “Tea Party” demonstrations that were already taking place at this point in the Obama Presidency. It turns out Obama’s biggest mistake as President may have been not being white.

Republicans’ best chance against Biden is to paint him as someone not in control. To say that the country is really being run by Nancy Pelosi or AOC. The problem with that strategy is, it creates an incredibly low bar, and everytime Biden comes out and strings a complete sentence together (which is most of the time) he clears that bar. This also fits nicely with the Biden strategy of underpromise, overdeliver.

Maybe Republicans will come up with an effective attack against Biden soon. When Obama started his Presidency with around 65% approval, it was hard to imagine anything taking him down. Yet we all know how that ended. But right now Republicans seem hard pressed to find an attack that lands. That’s why Biden’s approval at 100 days (54%) is almost exactly what it was when his presidency started (53%). I think it’s time we coined a new term: “Teflon Bidon.” Either that or we can talk about how partisanship has become so bad and people’s opinions are so baked in that Presidential approval barely budges anymore outside a 3-4 point window. Let’s do the first one though. It’s much less dperessing.