There have been many reports about which party stands to gain or lose from redistricting this year, but any redistricting analysis that doesn’t take into account how gerrymandered the maps already were is going to fail to capture how skewed they will be going forward. For instance, Texas’ delegation is not likely to dramatically change next year, but that doesn’t mean it’s map is not gerrymandered. Instead, to understand a party’s advantage we need to compare their map to what would be considered a”fair” map. That’s what I do for this article.
I take a look at the 10 most gerrymandered states and compare them to what would be considered “fair.” For “fair” maps I use the proposed map with the lowest efficiency gap according to FiveThirtyEight or, if no “fair” map was proposed, the “most proportional” map from Dave’s Redistricting. Finally, for the sake of this analysis, I’m only using maps that have been enacted or are just awaiting the governor’s signature. Here’s what I found:
North Carolina:
Fair map: 6R-4D-4C
Actual map: 10R-3D-1C
Difference: +4R, -1D, -3C
Ohio:
Fair: 9R-4D-2C
Actual: 11R-2D-2C
Diff: +2R, -2D
Utah:
Fair: 3R-1D
Actual: 4R
Diff: +1R, -1D
Georgia:
Fair: 7R-6D-1C
Actual: 9R-4D-1C
Diff: +2R, -2D
Oregon:
Fair: 1R-2D-3C
Actual: 1R-4D-1C
Diff: +2D, -2C
Illinois:
Fair: 3R-9D-5C
Actual:3R-11D-3C
Diff: +2D, -2C
Texas:
Fair: 17R-14D-7C
Actual: 24R-13D-1C
Diff: +7R, -1D, -6C
Oklahoma:
Fair: 4R-1C
Actual: 5R
Diff: +1R, -1C
Massachusetts:
Fair: 6D, 3C
Actual: 9D
Diff: +3D, -3C
Alabama:
Fair: 4R-1D-2C
Actual: 6R-1D
Diff: +2R, -2C
Total:
Fair: 54R-47D-28C
Actual: 73R-47D-9C
Difference: +19R, +0D, -19C
So Republicans have gained a total of 19 seats so far in those 10 states and Democrats basically break even. The biggest loser seems to be competitive districts, of which there are 19 fewer under the gerrymandered maps.
Note: This is an imperfect analysis and Democrats are likely to pick up a few seats in New York, though some of that could be cancelled out by Florida, depending on how agressive Republicans want to be there. The other pick-up opportunity for Democrats is in Maryland, but it looks as though they could only really net one seat at most from gerrymandering. The conclusion remains the same. Republicans are the big winners of redistricting and competition is loser.
That is, of course, unless Congress passes the Freedom to Vote Act, which would end partisan gerrymandering. But they need to get it done by the end of the year before maps are solidified for 2022. With Congress’s year end to do list piling up that’s looking less and less likely.
Wonkness Blog 